It was one of those mornings when the coffee was strong and the conversation even stronger. Across the table sat Prof. Rommel Banlaoi, a leading security expert whose decades of experience in Southeast Asian geopolitics and counterterrorism lent weight to every word. What followed was a candid, wide-ranging discussion on the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), peace, and the shifting tides of regional security.

Peace Delayed, Not Denied

“The repeated postponement of BARMM’s parliamentary elections isn’t just a scheduling issue—it’s a symptom,” Prof. Banlaoi explained. “The MILF and the national government still haven’t resolved the decommissioning of MILF’s armed forces. That’s a cornerstone of the peace agreement, and without it, the whole structure is shaky.”

He pointed to internal divisions within the MILF and its uneasy relationship with the MNLF as complicating factors. The rise of armed lawless groups (ALGs) only adds to the volatility, threatening to undo years of progress.

Global Flashpoints, Local Consequences

Prof. Banlaoi warned that international events—like the Gaza conflict and the influx of Afghan refugees—could have unintended consequences in Mindanao. “Radicalization doesn’t happen in isolation,” he said. “Global narratives can resonate deeply with vulnerable communities here.”

Billions in the Balance

BARMM receives an automatic annual budget of approximately PHP 80 billion. Prof. Banlaoi raised concerns about financial transparency and governance. “Without clear accountability, public trust erodes. And when trust erodes, peace becomes harder to sustain.”

Maritime Chessboard

Turning to the West Philippine Sea, Prof. Banlaoi highlighted the growing tension between Philippine and Chinese coast guards. “One miscalculation could trigger a serious conflict,” he cautioned.

He noted the strategic importance of joint military exercises with allies like the U.S., Japan, Australia, and South Korea. However, Malaysia’s increasing defense cooperation with China signals diverging priorities within ASEAN. “Reviving trilateral patrols with Indonesia and Malaysia is essential,” he said. “We need a united front against piracy, smuggling, and illegal fishing.”

Diplomacy in Motion

With the Philippines set to chair ASEAN and a new Chinese ambassador in Manila—one with deep experience in U.S. relations—Prof. Banlaoi sees a window of opportunity. “This could be the moment to push for a long-overdue code of conduct in the South China Sea,” he said.

As our coffee cooled and the conversation wound down, one thing was clear: Prof. Banlaoi’s insights painted a vivid picture of a region at a crossroads. From BARMM’s fragile peace to the geopolitical chessboard of Southeast Asia, the stakes are high—and the decisions made today will echo far into the future.

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