A growing storm brews in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), as security expert Prof. Rommel Banlaoi raises alarm over escalating tensions between the national government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), compounded by delays in regional elections and troubling signs of youth radicalization.

In a recent interview on ABANTE-Radyo’s “Walang Atrasan,” Banlaoi described the situation as “volatile,” citing the repeated postponement of BARMM elections and the unilateral implementation of MILF fighter decommissioning without proper consultation. “There are disturbing instructions circulating among Bangsamoro Armed Forces discouraging participation in the decommissioning process—orders that reportedly bypass MILF leadership,” Banlaoi revealed.

These developments, he warned, could fracture the fragile peace in the region. “Community-based violence is on the rise, especially in Maguindanao, which remains a hotspot province,” he said. The lack of coordination and trust between stakeholders threatens to unravel years of peacebuilding efforts.

Former peace negotiators have echoed these concerns, warning that internal divisions within the MILF could spiral into an uncontrollable crisis. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has vowed to ensure peaceful elections despite reported friction.

Banlaoi also highlighted a disturbing trend: the radicalization of Gen Z youth in Mindanao, fueled by online content related to the conflict in Gaza. “The emotional impact of the violence in Palestine is resonating deeply among Bangsamoro youth, creating fertile ground for the emergence of Armed Lawless Groups (ALG),” he said. These groups, he added, pose a threat not only to BARMM but to national security as a whole.

The unity between MILF and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) remains a critical factor in maintaining peace. But with grievances mounting and trust eroding, experts fear that the region could slide back into instability.

As the country approaches midterm elections, the stakes in BARMM are higher than ever. The government must act swiftly to restore dialogue, transparency, and inclusive decision-making—or risk reigniting the fires of conflict in Mindanao.